ML Analysis — OKLAHOMA HEART HOSPITAL SOUTH
CCN 370234 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
56
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health13/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
4.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -0.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-23.6%, 33.0%]. P73 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 3453344.535 | +0.2616 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3473201.605 | -0.2237 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 3101825.958 | +0.0739 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.088 | -0.0313 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.125 | +0.0220 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 58%Turnaround possible (58%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
37.1%
Distress Risk
$3.9M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
2.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P80. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
OK distress rate: 58.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.898 | -0.346 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 3453344.535 | -0.111 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.239 | -0.058 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.108 | +0.019 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 43.000 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.370 | +0.007 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.9M
Current margin: -0.6%
Projected margin: 2.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 92
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.239 | 0.464 | 22.5% | $3.9M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P41 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |