ML Analysis — MCBRIDE CLINIC ORTHOPEDIC HOSPITAL
CCN 370222 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
53
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency8/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -5.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.9%, 18.7%]. P38 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2453991.735 | +0.1221 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2576331.544 | -0.1132 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.088 | -0.0313 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.252 | -0.0155 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 68.000 | +0.0126 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 34%Turnaround possible (34%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
52.7%
Distress Risk
$2.8M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-3.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P52. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
OK distress rate: 58.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.252 | +0.253 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.016 | -0.073 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2453991.735 | -0.052 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.464 | +0.024 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 68.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.357 | -0.005 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.8M
Current margin: -5.0%
Projected margin: -3.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 63
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.252 | 0.676 | 42.3% | $2.8M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P47 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |