ML Analysis — LAKESIDE WOMENS HOSPITAL
CCN 370199 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-7.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 16.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.3%, 21.3%]. P44 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1198117.957 | +0.0566 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.088 | -0.0313 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.135 | -0.0288 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.289 | -0.0242 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.186 | -0.0205 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
45.3%
Distress Risk
$1.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
20.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P64. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
OK distress rate: 58.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.758 | -0.216 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.289 | +0.200 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.186 | -0.081 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.002 | -0.056 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 23.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1434620.739 | +0.009 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.3M
Current margin: 16.5%
Projected margin: 20.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 79
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.186 | 0.525 | 33.9% | $1.3M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P55 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |