ML Analysis — PURCELL MUNICIPAL HOSPITAL
CCN 370158 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
39
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility2/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-20.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -45.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-48.9%, 7.7%]. P20 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 813732.500 | -0.1069 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1180629.800 | +0.0587 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.303 | -0.0481 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.087 | +0.0328 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.088 | -0.0313 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 19%Low turnaround probability (19%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
58.2%
Distress Risk
$3.2M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
-5.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P89. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
OK distress rate: 58.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.154 | +0.344 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.632 | +0.052 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 813732.500 | +0.045 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.284 | -0.038 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.060 | -0.029 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 10.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.2M
Current margin: -45.1%
Projected margin: -5.2%
Grade: A
Comps: 15
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.154 | 0.559 | 40.5% | $2.7M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.284 | 0.658 | 37.4% | $356K | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.308 | 0.323 | 1.4% | $215K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 40.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P82 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 98.0% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P1 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |