ML Analysis — SAINT FRANCIS HOSPITAL
CCN 370091 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
58
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health19/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility13/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-12.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 8.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-40.3%, 16.3%]. P33 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bed Count | 888.000 | -0.1153 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 6.789 | +0.0561 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.088 | -0.0313 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.336 | -0.0299 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.124 | +0.0224 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Large Academic Medical Ce
Archetype
50.7%
Distress Risk
$10.7M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
9.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Large Academic Medical Center
Percentile within cluster: P69. Large medical centers trade at premium multiples (12-14x). Limited PE value creation but strong cash flow.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| NORTH CAROLINA BAPTIST HOSPITAL | NC | 800 |
| HACKENSACK UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 779 |
| TEMPLE UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL | PA | 761 |
| VCU HEALTH SYSTEM MCV HOSPITAL | VA | 842 |
| UH CLEVELAND MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 660 |
| FROEDTERT MEM. LUTHERAN HOSPT. | WI | 731 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
OK distress rate: 58.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.336 | +0.247 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.779 | -0.235 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 888.000 | +0.099 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.285 | -0.037 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.231 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1617716.920 | -0.002 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $10.7M
Current margin: 8.8%
Projected margin: 9.6%
Grade: D
Comps: 325
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.285 | 0.317 | 3.2% | $5.4M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.433 | 0.757 | 32.4% | $4.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.779 | 0.846 | 6.8% | $448K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |