ML Analysis — OSU MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 370078 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-15.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -35.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-43.5%, 13.1%]. P27 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1199437.151 | -0.0530 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.386 | -0.0359 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.088 | -0.0313 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.093 | +0.0313 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.241 | -0.0143 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 26%Low turnaround probability (26%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Medicaid %.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
51.9%
Distress Risk
$3.1M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-32.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P19. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
OK distress rate: 58.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.385 | +0.296 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.675 | -0.139 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.241 | -0.057 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1199437.151 | +0.022 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.230 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 119.000 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.1M
Current margin: -35.1%
Projected margin: -32.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 36
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.241 | 0.337 | 9.5% | $1.6M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.385 | 0.461 | 7.6% | $1.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.675 | 0.732 | 5.7% | $378K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P56 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |