ML Analysis — MUSCOGEE CREEK NATION MED CENTER
CCN 370057 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
45
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside13/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency3/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-16.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 2.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-44.6%, 12.0%]. P26 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 563064.720 | -0.1419 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 547337.820 | +0.1367 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.088 | -0.0313 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 79322.707 | -0.0263 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.141 | -0.0218 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
62.1%
Distress Risk
$3.0M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
13.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P89. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
OK distress rate: 58.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.141 | +0.357 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.214 | +0.125 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 563064.720 | +0.060 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 50.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.349 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.340 | +0.002 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.0M
Current margin: 2.8%
Projected margin: 13.6%
Grade: B
Comps: 89
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.141 | 0.543 | 40.2% | $2.7M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.349 | 0.464 | 11.5% | $380K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P58 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |