ML Analysis — BASS BAPTIST HEALTH CENTER
CCN 370016 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-16.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -18.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-44.2%, 12.3%]. P26 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1289106.507 | -0.0405 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.061 | +0.0404 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.088 | -0.0313 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.324 | -0.0284 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.171 | -0.0222 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 24%Low turnaround probability (24%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Reimbursement Quality.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
56.7%
Distress Risk
$5.6M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-12.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P29. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
OK distress rate: 58.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.324 | +0.235 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.370 | +0.144 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.171 | -0.088 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1289106.507 | +0.017 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 75.000 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.320 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.6M
Current margin: -18.6%
Projected margin: -12.8%
Grade: D
Comps: 58
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.171 | 0.351 | 18.0% | $2.0M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.370 | 0.677 | 30.7% | $2.0M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.357 | 0.456 | 10.0% | $1.5M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 31.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P69 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |