ML Analysis — REGENCY HOSPITAL OF COLUMBUS
CCN 362037 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
41
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency1/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 1.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.3%, 22.3%]. P47 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 417232.546 | -0.1622 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 411337.561 | +0.1535 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.070 | +0.0379 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.004 | +0.0313 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.118 | -0.0281 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
49.5%
Distress Risk
$4.6M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
18.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P41. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
OH distress rate: 37.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.118 | -0.112 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 417232.545 | +0.069 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.142 | +0.053 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.507 | +0.017 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 66.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.267 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.6M
Current margin: 1.4%
Projected margin: 18.1%
Grade: A
Comps: 94
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.591 | 0.758 | 16.7% | $2.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.507 | 0.671 | 16.4% | $1.1M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.118 | 0.426 | 30.8% | $993K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P50 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |