ML Analysis — BLUFFTON HOSPITAL
CCN 361322 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
40
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility2/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-1.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 30.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-30.0%, 26.6%]. P58 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 684758.880 | +0.1198 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 983911.120 | -0.0831 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.004 | +0.0313 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 87878.089 | -0.0260 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
61.6%
Distress Risk
$10.3M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
72.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P97. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
OH distress rate: 37.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.089 | +0.405 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.001 | -0.088 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.561 | +0.086 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.782 | +0.078 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 983911.120 | +0.035 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $10.3M
Current margin: 30.4%
Projected margin: 72.3%
Grade: A
Comps: 82
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.217 | 0.688 | 47.1% | $7.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.089 | 0.580 | 49.1% | $3.2M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P54 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |