ML Analysis — TRUMBULL MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 360055 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health11/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency1/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 1.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.5%, 24.1%]. P51 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 730604.122 | -0.1185 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 720480.269 | +0.1154 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.004 | +0.0313 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.125 | +0.0220 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.176 | -0.0216 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
49.2%
Distress Risk
$4.9M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
4.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P37. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
OH distress rate: 37.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.176 | -0.086 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.450 | +0.069 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 730604.122 | +0.050 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.062 | -0.026 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.228 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 197.000 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.9M
Current margin: 1.4%
Projected margin: 4.8%
Grade: D
Comps: 78
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.176 | 0.322 | 14.5% | $2.4M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.450 | 0.727 | 27.6% | $1.8M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.709 | 0.752 | 4.3% | $649K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |