ML Analysis — MIAMI VALLEY HOSPITAL
CCN 360051 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
58
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health20/25
RCM Upside9/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility13/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 9.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.6%, 23.0%]. P49 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bed Count | 893.000 | -0.1161 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 6.795 | +0.0562 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1299805.561 | +0.0440 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.004 | +0.0313 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1441180.069 | -0.0193 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin |
Large Academic Medical Ce
Archetype
45.8%
Distress Risk
$15.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
11.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Large Academic Medical Center
Percentile within cluster: P44. Large medical centers trade at premium multiples (12-14x). Limited PE value creation but strong cash flow.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| NORTH CAROLINA BAPTIST HOSPITAL | NC | 800 |
| HACKENSACK UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 779 |
| TEMPLE UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL | PA | 761 |
| VCU HEALTH SYSTEM MCV HOSPITAL | VA | 842 |
| UH CLEVELAND MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 660 |
| FROEDTERT MEM. LUTHERAN HOSPT. | WI | 731 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
OH distress rate: 37.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.674 | -0.139 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 893.000 | +0.100 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.219 | -0.067 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.063 | -0.026 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.209 | -0.020 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1441180.069 | +0.008 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $15.5M
Current margin: 9.8%
Projected margin: 11.0%
Grade: D
Comps: 15
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.219 | 0.313 | 9.3% | $14.1M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.728 | 0.783 | 5.5% | $826K | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.674 | 0.773 | 9.9% | $651K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |