ML Analysis — VIBRA HOSPITAL OF CENTRAL DAKOTAS L
CCN 352005 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-14.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 21.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-42.9%, 13.8%]. P28 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 287273.244 | -0.1804 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 224364.390 | +0.1765 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.093 | -0.0351 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.098 | +0.0299 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 114410.193 | -0.0252 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
55.5%
Distress Risk
$5.4M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
67.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P80. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
ND distress rate: 69.4%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.208 | +0.119 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.398 | +0.118 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 287273.244 | +0.076 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.236 | -0.059 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 41.000 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.379 | +0.009 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.4M
Current margin: 21.9%
Projected margin: 67.7%
Grade: A
Comps: 27
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.414 | 0.643 | 23.0% | $3.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.398 | 0.576 | 17.8% | $1.2M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.236 | 0.796 | 56.0% | $772K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P46 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |