ML Analysis — CHARLES A. CANNON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 341323 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-11.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -22.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-39.9%, 16.7%]. P34 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 878476.652 | -0.0978 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1077049.478 | +0.0715 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.135 | -0.0288 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 150371.763 | -0.0240 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.171 | -0.0201 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 30%Turnaround possible (30%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
57.4%
Distress Risk
$7.1M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
12.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P26. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
NC distress rate: 36.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.171 | +0.329 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.026 | -0.063 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 878476.652 | +0.041 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.547 | +0.038 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 23.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.366 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.1M
Current margin: -22.6%
Projected margin: 12.3%
Grade: A
Comps: 36
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.427 | 0.671 | 24.4% | $3.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.171 | 0.673 | 50.2% | $3.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.366 | 0.402 | 3.5% | $84K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 33.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P77 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.4% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P7 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |