ML Analysis — BERTIE MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 341304 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
55
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-1.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -3.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-29.6%, 27.0%]. P59 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 3251593.667 | +0.2334 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3363050.500 | -0.2101 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 1.792 | -0.0600 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1625796.833 | +0.0250 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Bed Count | 6.000 | +0.0223 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 48%Turnaround possible (48%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
47.4%
Distress Risk
$3.5M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
14.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P72. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NC distress rate: 36.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 3251593.667 | -0.099 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.023 | -0.066 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.574 | +0.042 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.456 | +0.039 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.500 | +0.023 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 6.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.5M
Current margin: -3.4%
Projected margin: 14.6%
Grade: A
Comps: 114
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.403 | 0.598 | 19.5% | $2.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.456 | 0.715 | 25.9% | $590K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 34.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P77 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.1% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P4 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |