ML Analysis — NORTH CAROLINA BAPTIST HOSPITAL
CCN 340047 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
61
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health13/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-2.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -4.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-30.8%, 25.8%]. P56 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2736816.228 | +0.1616 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2864389.627 | -0.1487 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 800.000 | -0.1016 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 6.685 | +0.0537 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 2141846.395 | +0.0421 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 46%Turnaround possible (46%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Large Academic Medical Ce
Archetype
42.1%
Distress Risk
$7.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-4.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Large Academic Medical Center
Percentile within cluster: P0. Large medical centers trade at premium multiples (12-14x). Limited PE value creation but strong cash flow.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HACKENSACK UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 779 |
| TEMPLE UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL | PA | 761 |
| VCU HEALTH SYSTEM MCV HOSPITAL | VA | 842 |
| UH CLEVELAND MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 660 |
| FROEDTERT MEM. LUTHERAN HOSPT. | WI | 731 |
| UNIVERSITY OF IOWA HOSP & CLINICS | IA | 727 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NC distress rate: 36.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.783 | -0.239 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 800.000 | +0.087 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2736816.228 | -0.068 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.286 | -0.037 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.160 | -0.029 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.083 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.5M
Current margin: -4.7%
Projected margin: -4.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 15
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.286 | 0.313 | 2.6% | $6.8M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.783 | 0.886 | 10.3% | $683K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |