ML Analysis — CENTRAL CAROLINA HOSPITAL
CCN 340020 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -9.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.0%, 18.6%]. P38 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 539919.504 | -0.1451 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 588363.134 | +0.1317 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.065 | +0.0392 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 122426.791 | -0.0249 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.162 | -0.0231 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 34%Turnaround possible (34%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
57.9%
Distress Risk
$10.2M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
5.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P82. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
NC distress rate: 36.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.227 | +0.277 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.162 | -0.092 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.174 | +0.085 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 539919.504 | +0.061 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.423 | +0.017 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 127.000 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $10.2M
Current margin: -9.0%
Projected margin: 5.9%
Grade: A
Comps: 58
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.402 | 0.758 | 35.5% | $5.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.227 | 0.742 | 51.6% | $3.4M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.162 | 0.346 | 18.4% | $1.5M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P55 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |