ML Analysis — HENRY J. CARTER
CCN 332008 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-23.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -27.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-51.4%, 5.2%]. P17 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 637083.209 | -0.1315 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 811338.895 | +0.1042 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.175 | -0.0960 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.432 | -0.0415 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.303 | +0.0216 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 16%Low turnaround probability (16%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
60.2%
Distress Risk
$6.9M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-22.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P8. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
NY distress rate: 84.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.432 | +0.343 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 637083.209 | +0.056 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.480 | +0.042 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.127 | -0.034 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.430 | +0.027 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 201.000 | +0.007 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.9M
Current margin: -27.4%
Projected margin: -22.0%
Grade: D
Comps: 98
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.441 | 0.746 | 30.5% | $4.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.480 | 0.826 | 34.5% | $2.3M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P40 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |