ML Analysis — ST. CATHERINE OF SIENA MEDICAL CENTE
CCN 330401 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-17.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -20.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-45.8%, 10.8%]. P24 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.175 | -0.0960 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 920261.409 | -0.0920 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1104518.547 | +0.0681 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.102 | +0.0287 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.537 | +0.0270 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 22%Low turnaround probability (22%). Structural disadvantages in State Peer Margin and Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
48.8%
Distress Risk
$12.1M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-14.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P82. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NY distress rate: 84.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.020 | -0.068 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.224 | -0.065 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 920261.409 | +0.039 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.525 | +0.034 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.497 | +0.026 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 254.000 | +0.014 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $12.1M
Current margin: -20.0%
Projected margin: -14.8%
Grade: D
Comps: 97
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.224 | 0.426 | 20.2% | $5.5M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.454 | 0.746 | 29.2% | $4.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.497 | 0.831 | 33.4% | $2.2M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P40 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |