ML Analysis — MASSENA MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 330223 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health2/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-17.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -14.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-45.6%, 10.9%]. P24 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.175 | -0.0960 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2213888.200 | -0.0686 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1935726.880 | +0.0498 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 25.000 | +0.0193 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 23%Low turnaround probability (23%). Structural disadvantages in State Peer Margin and Expense/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
46.2%
Distress Risk
$2.0M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-10.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P37. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NY distress rate: 84.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.027 | -0.062 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.551 | -0.024 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1935726.880 | -0.021 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.354 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.347 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.0M
Current margin: -14.4%
Projected margin: -10.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 30
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.626 | 0.679 | 5.3% | $789K | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.354 | 0.471 | 11.7% | $660K | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.551 | 0.639 | 8.8% | $584K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 31.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P66 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |