ML Analysis — KINGSBROOK JEWISH MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 330201 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
41
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-48.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-76.6%, -20.0%]. P7 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bed Count | 2342.000 | -0.3422 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 80892.292 | -0.2092 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 135455.520 | +0.1875 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.175 | -0.0960 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 7.759 | +0.0786 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 3%Low turnaround probability (3%). Structural disadvantages in Bed Count and Revenue/Bed.
Large Academic Medical Ce
Archetype
58.9%
Distress Risk
$6.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-46.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Large Academic Medical Center
Percentile within cluster: P97. Large medical centers trade at premium multiples (12-14x). Limited PE value creation but strong cash flow.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| NORTH CAROLINA BAPTIST HOSPITAL | NC | 800 |
| HACKENSACK UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 779 |
| TEMPLE UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL | PA | 761 |
| VCU HEALTH SYSTEM MCV HOSPITAL | VA | 842 |
| UH CLEVELAND MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 660 |
| FROEDTERT MEM. LUTHERAN HOSPT. | WI | 731 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
NY distress rate: 84.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beds | 2342.000 | +0.294 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.259 | +0.170 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.632 | -0.100 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 80892.292 | +0.088 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.250 | -0.053 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.255 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.3M
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: -46.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 18
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.486 | 0.756 | 27.0% | $4.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.632 | 0.844 | 21.1% | $1.4M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.250 | 0.290 | 4.0% | $881K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |