ML Analysis — GLEN COVE HOSPITAL
CCN 330181 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
55
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside21/25
Market Position10/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-11.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -24.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-39.8%, 16.8%]. P34 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 4072959.463 | -0.2976 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 3267972.685 | +0.2357 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.175 | -0.0960 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 2807206.775 | +0.0642 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.100 | +0.0293 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 31%Turnaround possible (31%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
37.1%
Distress Risk
$7.8M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-20.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P95. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NY distress rate: 84.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.859 | -0.310 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 3267972.685 | -0.100 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.231 | -0.061 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.039 | -0.050 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.530 | +0.035 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 54.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.8M
Current margin: -24.6%
Projected margin: -20.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 35
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.431 | 0.716 | 28.5% | $4.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.231 | 0.400 | 16.9% | $3.5M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P62 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |