ML Analysis — NEW YORK EYE AND EAR INFIRMARY
CCN 330100 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
41
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health2/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility2/15
Operational Efficiency8/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-35.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -28.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-63.6%, -7.0%]. P10 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 9625133.333 | -0.9816 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 7522505.067 | +0.8296 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.175 | -0.0960 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.708 | -0.0387 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.154 | -0.0211 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 8%Low turnaround probability (8%). Structural disadvantages in Expense/Bed and Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
44.1%
Distress Risk
$6.2M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-22.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P100. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NY distress rate: 84.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 7522505.067 | -0.351 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.154 | +0.345 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.001 | -0.088 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.011 | -0.054 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.270 | -0.044 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 15.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.2M
Current margin: -28.0%
Projected margin: -22.5%
Grade: D
Comps: 25
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.154 | 0.639 | 48.6% | $3.2M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.270 | 0.495 | 22.5% | $3.0M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 36.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P80 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 98.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P2 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |