ML Analysis — NY COMMUNITY HOSPITAL OF BROOKLYN (D
CCN 330019 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-13.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -14.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-41.9%, 14.7%]. P30 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 852283.201 | -0.1015 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.175 | -0.0960 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 972922.493 | +0.0843 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.132 | +0.0201 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 4.898 | +0.0122 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 28%Low turnaround probability (28%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and State Peer Margin.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
45.2%
Distress Risk
$6.8M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-8.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P89. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NY distress rate: 84.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.729 | -0.190 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.042 | -0.046 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 852283.201 | +0.043 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.570 | +0.042 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.339 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 134.000 | -0.002 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.8M
Current margin: -14.1%
Projected margin: -8.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 88
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.388 | 0.745 | 35.7% | $5.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.339 | 0.412 | 7.3% | $975K | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.729 | 0.803 | 7.4% | $488K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P38 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |