ML Analysis — ALBANY MEDICAL CENTER HOSPITAL
CCN 330013 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
60
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility13/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-19.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -19.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-47.5%, 9.1%]. P22 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.175 | -0.0960 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 719.000 | -0.0890 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 6.578 | +0.0512 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1836293.495 | -0.0221 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.818 | +0.0166 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 20%Low turnaround probability (20%). Structural disadvantages in State Peer Margin and Bed Count.
Large Academic Medical Ce
Archetype
42.5%
Distress Risk
$12.1M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-18.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Large Academic Medical Center
Percentile within cluster: P56. Large medical centers trade at premium multiples (12-14x). Limited PE value creation but strong cash flow.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| NORTH CAROLINA BAPTIST HOSPITAL | NC | 800 |
| HACKENSACK UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 779 |
| TEMPLE UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL | PA | 761 |
| VCU HEALTH SYSTEM MCV HOSPITAL | VA | 842 |
| UH CLEVELAND MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 660 |
| FROEDTERT MEM. LUTHERAN HOSPT. | WI | 731 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NY distress rate: 84.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.818 | -0.272 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 719.000 | +0.076 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.045 | -0.044 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.220 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.328 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1541277.730 | +0.002 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $12.1M
Current margin: -19.1%
Projected margin: -18.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 34
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.328 | 0.416 | 8.8% | $11.3M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.818 | 0.894 | 7.6% | $504K | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.735 | 0.749 | 1.4% | $208K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |