ML Analysis — ST. LAWRENCE REHABILITATION CENTER
CCN 313027 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
51
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -27.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.1%, 19.5%]. P40 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 415013.650 | -0.1625 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 527467.017 | +0.1392 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 204519.984 | -0.0222 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.254 | -0.0151 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Bed Count | 60.000 | +0.0138 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 35%Turnaround possible (35%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
51.1%
Distress Risk
$5.8M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
-3.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P43. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
NJ distress rate: 47.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.005 | -0.084 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 415013.650 | +0.069 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.472 | +0.046 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.493 | +0.030 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.457 | +0.022 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 60.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.8M
Current margin: -27.1%
Projected margin: -3.7%
Grade: A
Comps: 30
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.538 | 0.779 | 24.1% | $3.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.493 | 0.755 | 26.2% | $1.7M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.472 | 0.641 | 16.9% | $492K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P51 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |