ML Analysis — ALICE PECK DAY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 301305 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
57
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health11/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
7.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -1.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-21.0%, 35.6%]. P78 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 3927583.333 | +0.3278 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3984843.833 | -0.2867 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 2290641.924 | +0.0470 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.178 | -0.0278 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 24.000 | +0.0195 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 63%Model predicts 63% probability of positive margin. Key drivers: Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
45.3%
Distress Risk
$5.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
4.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P90. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NH distress rate: 42.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 3927583.333 | -0.139 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.004 | -0.085 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.534 | +0.074 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.665 | +0.058 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.583 | -0.054 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 24.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.5M
Current margin: -1.5%
Projected margin: 4.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 12
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.331 | 0.630 | 29.9% | $4.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.534 | 0.623 | 8.9% | $977K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P50 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |