ML Analysis — SOUTHERN NH MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 300020 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
59
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility13/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
1.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -0.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-26.8%, 29.8%]. P66 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2123144.558 | +0.0759 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2139117.819 | -0.0594 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1412310.533 | +0.0179 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.027 | +0.0137 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 4.927 | +0.0128 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 53%Turnaround possible (53%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
43.1%
Distress Risk
$976K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-0.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P23. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NH distress rate: 42.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.665 | -0.130 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.012 | -0.077 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2123144.558 | -0.032 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.341 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 138.000 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.328 | +0.000 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $976K
Current margin: -0.8%
Projected margin: -0.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 12
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.665 | 0.813 | 14.8% | $976K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |