ML Analysis — CONCORD HOSPITAL - LACONIA
CCN 300005 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
57
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -12.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.8%, 22.9%]. P48 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.027 | +0.0137 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Count | 86.000 | +0.0098 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.010 | +0.0095 | Higher Medicaid % increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1727684.942 | -0.0087 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.176 | +0.0073 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 40%Turnaround possible (40%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on State Peer Margin.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
49.3%
Distress Risk
$3.6M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-9.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P54. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NH distress rate: 42.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.010 | -0.078 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.441 | +0.078 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.453 | +0.022 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.328 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 86.000 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1534282.581 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.6M
Current margin: -12.6%
Projected margin: -9.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 11
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.441 | 0.820 | 37.9% | $2.5M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.536 | 0.602 | 6.6% | $986K | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.328 | 0.337 | 0.9% | $132K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P40 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |