ML Analysis — DIGNITY HEALTH REHABILITATION HOSPIT
CCN 293035 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
43
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
3.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 12.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-24.9%, 31.7%]. P70 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 606492.967 | +0.1294 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 690071.667 | -0.1241 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.004 | +0.0369 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.078 | +0.0355 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Occupancy | 0.887 | +0.0206 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
42.6%
Distress Risk
$9.2M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
34.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P96. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NV distress rate: 37.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.887 | -0.336 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.715 | +0.067 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 690071.667 | +0.052 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.058 | -0.030 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 60.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.344 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $9.2M
Current margin: 12.1%
Projected margin: 34.3%
Grade: A
Comps: 16
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.227 | 0.774 | 54.7% | $8.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.344 | 0.548 | 20.3% | $985K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P37 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |