ML Analysis — HUMBOLDT GENERAL HOSPITAL
CCN 291308 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
51
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency8/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-10.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -37.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.3%, 18.3%]. P37 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 3227415.080 | -0.1934 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2350511.440 | +0.1077 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.004 | +0.0369 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.127 | +0.0213 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 33%Turnaround possible (33%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
51.6%
Distress Risk
$6.8M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
-25.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P86. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
NV distress rate: 37.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.455 | +0.065 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2350511.440 | -0.046 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.589 | +0.045 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.423 | +0.024 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.109 | +0.020 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.8M
Current margin: -37.3%
Projected margin: -25.7%
Grade: B
Comps: 16
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.301 | 0.623 | 32.2% | $4.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.455 | 0.612 | 15.6% | $1.0M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.423 | 0.562 | 13.9% | $954K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 33.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P77 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.3% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P6 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |