ML Analysis — CARSON VALLEY MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 291306 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
60
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside11/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency11/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
7.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 6.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-21.3%, 35.3%]. P77 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 3665696.870 | +0.2912 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3418113.435 | -0.2169 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.004 | +0.0369 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.135 | -0.0288 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1728706.838 | +0.0284 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
47.1%
Distress Risk
$6.1M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
14.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P46. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NV distress rate: 37.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 3665696.870 | -0.123 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.472 | +0.050 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.483 | +0.027 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.314 | -0.025 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 23.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.086 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.1M
Current margin: 6.8%
Projected margin: 14.0%
Grade: C
Comps: 15
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.431 | 0.634 | 20.3% | $3.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.314 | 0.550 | 23.6% | $2.3M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.472 | 0.575 | 10.4% | $685K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P63 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |