ML Analysis — BATTLE MOUNTAIN GENERAL HOSPITAL
CCN 291303 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
41
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility2/15
Operational Efficiency8/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-15.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -39.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-43.6%, 13.0%]. P27 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 3485419.800 | -0.2252 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2493580.200 | +0.1276 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 1.609 | -0.0642 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.033 | +0.0485 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.004 | +0.0369 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi |
Turnaround: 25%Low turnaround probability (25%). Structural disadvantages in Expense/Bed and Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
62.4%
Distress Risk
$10.9M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
47.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P94. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
NV distress rate: 37.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.108 | +0.387 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.649 | +0.125 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.858 | +0.091 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2493580.200 | -0.054 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 5.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.091 | +0.002 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $10.9M
Current margin: -39.8%
Projected margin: 47.4%
Grade: A
Comps: 50
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.051 | 0.658 | 60.7% | $9.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.108 | 0.376 | 26.8% | $1.8M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 40.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 98.0% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P1 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |