ML Analysis — INCLINE VILLAGE HOSPITAL
CCN 291301 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position4/20
Demand Defensibility1/15
Operational Efficiency15/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-0.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 11.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-29.0%, 27.6%]. P61 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 4950084.500 | +0.4705 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 4404322.250 | -0.3384 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 1.386 | -0.0694 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Cost per Patient Day | 8808644.500 | -0.0664 | Higher Cost per Patient Day decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.000 | +0.0580 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
nan%
Distress Risk
$10.8M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
65.5%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
NV distress rate: 37.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.001 | +0.486 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 1.000 | +0.115 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 4950084.500 | -0.199 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.521 | +0.068 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 4.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $10.8M
Current margin: 11.0%
Projected margin: 65.5%
Grade: A
Comps: 0
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.000 | 0.420 | 42.0% | $6.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.001 | 0.680 | 67.9% | $4.5M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |