ML Analysis — ST. ROSE DOMINICAN - DELIMA
CCN 290012 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
40
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-19.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -45.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-47.6%, 9.0%]. P22 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 3162698.700 | -0.1855 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2176578.700 | +0.0834 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.303 | -0.0481 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.059 | +0.0410 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.004 | +0.0369 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi |
Turnaround: 20%Low turnaround probability (20%). Structural disadvantages in Expense/Bed and Revenue/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
53.1%
Distress Risk
$2.2M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
-35.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P66. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
NV distress rate: 37.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.353 | +0.264 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.105 | -0.118 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.417 | +0.101 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.083 | -0.042 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2176578.700 | -0.035 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 10.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.2M
Current margin: -45.3%
Projected margin: -35.1%
Grade: B
Comps: 616
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.105 | 0.716 | 61.2% | $1.6M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.563 | 0.596 | 3.3% | $489K | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.417 | 0.445 | 2.8% | $184K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 40.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P82 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 97.3% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 97.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P0 | Average — predicted net collection rate is near the median. |