ML Analysis — MEMORIAL HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS
CCN 281339 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
45
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside13/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 4.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.3%, 24.3%]. P52 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross | 0.791 | +0.0474 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.178 | -0.0278 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1750317.042 | +0.0239 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 24.000 | +0.0195 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.265 | -0.0181 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m |
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
56.6%
Distress Risk
$705K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
6.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P28. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
NE distress rate: 53.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.792 | +0.188 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.354 | +0.159 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.003 | -0.086 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.663 | +0.058 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 24.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1750317.042 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $705K
Current margin: 4.4%
Projected margin: 6.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 65
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.334 | 0.381 | 4.7% | $705K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P38 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |