ML Analysis — THAYER COUNTY HEALTH SERVICES
CCN 281304 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
41
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health2/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position12/20
Demand Defensibility2/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-11.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -13.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-40.1%, 16.5%]. P34 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross | 0.809 | +0.0494 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.944 | -0.0332 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 191818.399 | -0.0226 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.135 | -0.0222 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1425788.421 | -0.0214 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 30%Turnaround possible (30%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Net-to-Gross.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
62.9%
Distress Risk
$2.1M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-5.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P12. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
NE distress rate: 53.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.135 | +0.363 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.809 | +0.196 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.674 | +0.060 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.033 | -0.056 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 19.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1425788.421 | +0.009 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.1M
Current margin: -13.4%
Projected margin: -5.7%
Grade: C
Comps: 69
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.293 | 0.381 | 8.9% | $1.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.135 | 0.249 | 11.4% | $755K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P59 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |