ML Analysis — KEARNEY REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 280134 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
54
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -9.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.5%, 20.1%]. P42 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.147 | +0.0157 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.063 | -0.0129 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 93.000 | +0.0087 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1721246.925 | -0.0079 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 638748.910 | -0.0078 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 36%Turnaround possible (36%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Reimbursement Quality.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
50.9%
Distress Risk
$5.0M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-6.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P43. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
NE distress rate: 53.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.407 | +0.110 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.057 | -0.032 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.304 | -0.029 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.460 | +0.023 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 93.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1568909.677 | +0.001 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.0M
Current margin: -9.7%
Projected margin: -6.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 21
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.304 | 0.425 | 12.1% | $2.1M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.483 | 0.594 | 11.1% | $1.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.407 | 0.608 | 20.1% | $1.3M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P40 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |