ML Analysis — COLUMBUS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL
CCN 280111 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
57
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency8/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -1.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.3%, 24.3%]. P52 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2741507.080 | +0.1622 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2773992.840 | -0.1376 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.510 | +0.0159 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 50.000 | +0.0154 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.063 | -0.0129 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 43%Turnaround possible (43%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
52.7%
Distress Risk
$3.9M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
1.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P30. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
NE distress rate: 53.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.405 | +0.112 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2741507.080 | -0.069 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.510 | +0.063 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.463 | +0.023 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.108 | +0.019 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 50.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.9M
Current margin: -1.2%
Projected margin: 1.6%
Grade: D
Comps: 29
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.510 | 0.637 | 12.7% | $2.0M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.428 | 0.527 | 9.9% | $1.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.405 | 0.457 | 5.2% | $341K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P38 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |