ML Analysis — LOGAN HEALTH CUTBANK
CCN 271337 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health1/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-20.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -9.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-48.5%, 8.1%]. P21 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 526745.150 | -0.1469 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 577422.700 | +0.1330 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.469 | -0.0770 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.895 | +0.0590 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.096 | -0.0373 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 19%Low turnaround probability (19%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
65.6%
Distress Risk
$4.3M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
31.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P68. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MT distress rate: 69.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.077 | +0.416 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.895 | +0.234 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 526745.150 | +0.062 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.049 | -0.040 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 20.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.427 | +0.017 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.3M
Current margin: -9.6%
Projected margin: 31.4%
Grade: A
Comps: 49
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.077 | 0.732 | 65.5% | $4.3M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P43 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |