ML Analysis — BIG SANDY MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 271311 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
51
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside23/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
3.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -45.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-24.7%, 31.9%]. P71 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 2.238 | +0.1530 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte | |
| Revenue/Bed | 532547.625 | -0.1461 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 775567.500 | +0.1086 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 2.238 | +0.0973 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 1.000 | +0.0708 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 56%Turnaround possible (56%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Occupancy × Net-to-Gross.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
28.6%
Distress Risk
$2.3M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
8.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P100. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MT distress rate: 69.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 2.238 | -1.590 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.513 | +0.424 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 1.000 | +0.281 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 532547.625 | +0.062 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.048 | -0.048 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 8.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.3M
Current margin: -45.6%
Projected margin: 8.6%
Grade: A
Comps: 383
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.439 | 0.593 | 15.4% | $2.3M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |