ML Analysis — ST VINCENT HEALTHCARE
CCN 270049 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
65
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position12/20
Demand Defensibility15/15
Operational Efficiency8/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -18.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.4%, 19.2%]. P39 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2879912.058 | -0.1506 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2432846.080 | +0.1191 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.096 | -0.0373 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1721926.517 | +0.0282 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.420 | +0.0243 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 34%Turnaround possible (34%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
48.9%
Distress Risk
$5.6M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-17.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P52. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MT distress rate: 69.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.281 | +0.192 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.708 | -0.170 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2432846.080 | -0.050 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 226.000 | +0.010 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.308 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.376 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.6M
Current margin: -18.4%
Projected margin: -17.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 1808
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.411 | 0.756 | 34.5% | $5.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.708 | 0.767 | 5.9% | $392K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |