ML Analysis — OSAGE BEACH CENTER FOR COGNITIVE DIS
CCN 264031 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
52
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-12.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 11.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-40.7%, 15.9%]. P32 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 296302.625 | -0.1791 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 262587.000 | +0.1718 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.773 | -0.0372 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.281 | -0.0230 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 248051.975 | -0.0207 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
47.4%
Distress Risk
$53K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
12.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P66. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MO distress rate: 53.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.837 | -0.290 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.258 | +0.169 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 296302.625 | +0.076 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.085 | -0.041 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.429 | +0.027 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 16.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $53K
Current margin: 11.4%
Projected margin: 12.5%
Grade: D
Comps: 41
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.429 | 0.525 | 9.6% | $53K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P43 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |