ML Analysis — LANDMARK REHABILITATION HOSPITAL OF
CCN 263033 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
43
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position10/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-16.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -32.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-44.6%, 12.0%]. P26 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 76263.938 | -0.2098 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 101209.188 | +0.1917 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.773 | -0.0372 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 17995.098 | -0.0284 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.107 | +0.0270 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 24%Low turnaround probability (24%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
62.9%
Distress Risk
$6.5M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
499.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P91. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MO distress rate: 53.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.236 | +0.268 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.264 | +0.175 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 76263.938 | +0.089 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.473 | +0.025 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 16.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.408 | +0.017 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.5M
Current margin: -32.7%
Projected margin: 499.9%
Grade: A
Comps: 41
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.264 | 0.607 | 34.3% | $5.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.236 | 0.439 | 20.3% | $1.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.408 | 0.525 | 11.7% | $17K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 36.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P80 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 98.9% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P3 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |