ML Analysis — SSM SELECT REHAB ST LOUIS LLC
CCN 263031 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
61
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health19/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility13/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
2.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 39.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-26.2%, 30.4%]. P67 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 617607.520 | +0.1281 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1012385.128 | -0.0791 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.913 | +0.0220 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.062 | -0.0125 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.160 | +0.0120 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
41.2%
Distress Risk
$3.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
41.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P95. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MO distress rate: 53.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.913 | -0.360 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1012385.128 | +0.033 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.313 | -0.025 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.103 | +0.014 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.386 | +0.010 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 125.000 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.3M
Current margin: 39.0%
Projected margin: 41.6%
Grade: D
Comps: 37
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.511 | 0.682 | 17.1% | $2.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.313 | 0.363 | 5.0% | $737K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |