ML Analysis — ST. LUKES REHAB HOSPITAL
CCN 263030 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
40
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position4/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-0.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 25.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-28.5%, 28.1%]. P62 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 426213.543 | +0.1516 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 568289.257 | -0.1411 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.077 | +0.0358 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.555 | -0.0190 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Commercial % | 0.148 | -0.0177 | Lower Commercial % decreases predicted margin |
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
46.9%
Distress Risk
$7.4M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
62.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P99. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MO distress rate: 53.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.803 | -0.258 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.792 | +0.080 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.519 | +0.067 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 568289.257 | +0.060 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.060 | -0.029 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 35.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.4M
Current margin: 25.0%
Projected margin: 62.1%
Grade: A
Comps: 63
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.149 | 0.641 | 49.2% | $7.4M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P36 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |