ML Analysis — HEARTLAND LONG TERM ACUTE CARE HOSPI
CCN 262019 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position12/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-12.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -23.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-40.3%, 16.3%]. P33 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 259560.342 | -0.1842 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 319362.805 | +0.1648 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.073 | +0.0370 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 118653.678 | -0.0250 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Bed Count | 41.000 | +0.0168 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 30%Low turnaround probability (30%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
54.6%
Distress Risk
$7.3M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
45.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P77. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MO distress rate: 53.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.170 | +0.081 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 259560.341 | +0.078 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.457 | +0.063 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.572 | +0.042 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.282 | -0.039 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 41.000 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.3M
Current margin: -23.0%
Projected margin: 45.7%
Grade: A
Comps: 65
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.258 | 0.651 | 39.3% | $5.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.457 | 0.632 | 17.5% | $1.2M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.282 | 0.490 | 20.7% | $258K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 32.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P72 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |