ML Analysis — SCOTLAND COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 261310 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position12/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-14.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-43.2%, 13.4%]. P28 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 739714.120 | -0.1172 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1140706.920 | +0.0636 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.116 | +0.0246 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 237843.422 | -0.0211 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 26%Low turnaround probability (26%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
55.5%
Distress Risk
$6.4M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
-15.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P92. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MO distress rate: 53.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.322 | +0.189 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.654 | +0.056 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 739714.120 | +0.050 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.049 | -0.039 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.391 | +0.010 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.4M
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: -15.4%
Grade: A
Comps: 61
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.296 | 0.607 | 31.0% | $4.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.322 | 0.548 | 22.7% | $1.5M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.391 | 0.502 | 11.1% | $240K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 35.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P80 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 98.9% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P3 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |