ML Analysis — UNIVERSITY HEALTH LAKEWOOD MED CTR
CCN 260102 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-16.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -34.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-45.1%, 11.5%]. P25 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1356853.034 | -0.0311 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.309 | -0.0310 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Medicaid % | 0.308 | -0.0265 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1826894.761 | -0.0209 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.535 | +0.0186 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 23%Low turnaround probability (23%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Reimbursement Quality.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
58.5%
Distress Risk
$3.9M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-32.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P38. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MO distress rate: 53.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.308 | +0.219 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.413 | +0.104 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.535 | +0.074 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.114 | -0.036 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1356853.034 | +0.013 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 117.000 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.9M
Current margin: -34.6%
Projected margin: -32.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 40
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.413 | 0.759 | 34.6% | $2.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.578 | 0.683 | 10.5% | $1.6M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P38 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |