ML Analysis — BARNES-JEWISH HOSPITAL
CCN 260032 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
60
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility13/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-13.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -2.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-41.9%, 14.7%]. P30 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bed Count | 1259.000 | -0.1732 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 7.138 | +0.0642 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1920772.313 | +0.0477 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1958364.052 | -0.0371 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1546263.053 | +0.0223 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 28%Low turnaround probability (28%). Structural disadvantages in Bed Count and Log(Beds).
Large Academic Medical Ce
Archetype
45.4%
Distress Risk
$3.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-1.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Large Academic Medical Center
Percentile within cluster: P65. Large medical centers trade at premium multiples (12-14x). Limited PE value creation but strong cash flow.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| NORTH CAROLINA BAPTIST HOSPITAL | NC | 800 |
| HACKENSACK UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 779 |
| TEMPLE UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL | PA | 761 |
| VCU HEALTH SYSTEM MCV HOSPITAL | VA | 842 |
| UH CLEVELAND MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 660 |
| FROEDTERT MEM. LUTHERAN HOSPT. | WI | 731 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MO distress rate: 53.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.805 | -0.260 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 1259.000 | +0.149 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.310 | -0.026 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1920772.313 | -0.020 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.245 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.103 | +0.014 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.3M
Current margin: -2.0%
Projected margin: -1.8%
Grade: D
Comps: 155
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.652 | 0.765 | 11.3% | $1.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.310 | 0.314 | 0.4% | $1.2M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.805 | 0.881 | 7.6% | $501K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |